Big John WEATHER Summary & Discussion
(Issued 3:00 pm Sunday July 27th, 2014)
Our Sunday meeting starts with the suggestion of some new tropical activity later this week. NHC has identified one of the tropical waves near the Cape Verde Islands with the potential to develop approaching the Lesser Antilles in less than 5 days. This could become BERTHA and is approaching a more conducive environment for development in that time period.
Put that on your radar for later. In the meantime, DANGEROUS HEAT.
We have been as hot as 96-degrees three times this year (May 23rd, June 21st, and July 14th), and this afternoon's forecast should top that with heat indices up to the DANGER LEVEL at 105. Strong low is over New England, dragging a strong cold front into the Southeast with severe weather expected over the Central Appalachians this afternoon: damaging winds and large hail.
Ahead of that front, a strong hot dry offshore flow is in place, thanks to Atlantic high pressure just to our south stretching into the Gulf. A west wind is our hot wind and with a strong cap in place, little rainfall expected to help with the heat today. Even the sea breeze front will have trouble starting this afternoon.
A deep upper-level trough starts to carve into the Southeast heat tonight, promoting more cloud cover from the debris of any convective storms upstream. That will keep us even warmer tonight, providing little chance to "cool down" before the next hot day on Monday. And Monday will be even hotter: hi 98, heat index up above the Heat Advisory level at 111. BE HEAT SMART.
If you don't know the signs of heat stress, if you need ideas on how to stay cool, if you need reminders to check on neighbors, elderly and friends, then go to our website and click under the weather tab for complete details: www.wtoc.com/weather
The front arrives after dark Monday evening. The threat of possible severe weather arrives ahead of the front, after 4pm Monday. Any storms will be more scattered with a slight risk of severe weather according to the SPC. We will have a HEAT ADVISORY and possible SEVERE WARNINGS late Monday, unless the dew points mix out fast; then all bets are off.
After the front clears, you'll like the next three days with relatively cooler air that will be less humid, highs in the upper 80s, lighter northwest winds, another real "break" in the summer heat. But it doesn't last long with the cold front, stalled offshore, starting to return late week head back north. Next weekend could be wet. We'll be watching!
Meteorologist John Wetherbee, CBM
AMS Broad of Broadcast Meteorology
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